2020 Senate Election Forecast

P S Find a race FiveThirtyEight Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Our presidential forecast determines which party gets control when the Senate is evenly split. Average outcome: 50.5 53 […]

2020 Senate Election Forecast

P
S
Find a race
FiveThirtyEight

Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate
Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Our presidential forecast determines which party gets control when the Senate is evenly split.

Average outcome: 50.5
53 R seats
54 D
80% ofoutcomes fallin this range
Morelikely
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
53 R SEATS
7.0% chance
7.0% chance
Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 and 54 seats.
In 42 in 100 scenarios, Republicans win control
In 58 in 100 scenarios, Democrats win control
When both parties hold 50 seats, control of the Senate is decided by which party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.
Want to see other versions of the forecast? Click the magnifying glass in the lower left!
2020 ELECTION COVERAGE

Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election

By Nathaniel Rakich

More And More Americans Aren’t Religious. Why Are Democrats Ignoring These Voters?

By Daniel Cox and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Forecasting each Senate seat
Icon Legend
Solid R
≥95% R
Likely R
≥75%
Lean R
≥60%
Toss-up
<60% both
Lean D
≥60%
Likely D
≥75%
Solid D
≥95% D
Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Forecasts do not add to 100 in some races due to rounding.
In the Louisiana race and Georgia’s special election, multiple candidates from each party are facing off on Election Day. If no one gets a majority, two candidates go to a runoff.
US GENERAL

Biden is favored to win

See the forecast

How the Senate forecast has changed
See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Each party's majority chances include scenarios where the Senate is evenly split and that party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast.
As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls ???? — the forecast will get less uncertain.
Who’s ahead in each state
Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.

Race Legend
80% of outcomes fall in this range
SORT BY MARGIN
SORT BY STATE
Margin of victory
Fun fact: Incumbents who were appointed to their seat lose more often than elected incumbents, so they don’t get an incumbency boost in our model.
We made this
FORECAST MODEL

Nate Silver

PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Christopher Groskopf

DESIGN

Ryan Best

Jasmine Mithani

Anna Wiederkehr

CONTENT EDITING

Micah Cohen

Sarah Frostenson

Christopher Groskopf

Nate Silver

ART DIRECTION

Emily Scherer

ILLUSTRATION

Fabio Buonocore

Joey Ellis

DEVELOPMENT

Ryan Best

Jay Boice

Aaron Bycoffe

Christopher Groskopf

Elena Mejía

Jasmine Mithani

Anna Wiederkehr

Julia Wolfe

Yutong Yuan

COPY EDITING

Colleen Barry

Jennifer Mason

DATA & RESEARCH

Aaron Bycoffe

Dhrumil Mehta

Mary Radcliffe

Derek Shan

Download the data:PollsModel outputs

Notice a ?????Send us an email.

Congrats, you made it to the bottom! If you’re looking for the nitty-gritty of how our forecast works, check out the methodology.
Lite
What Election Day looks like based on polls alone

Classic
What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more

Deluxe
What Election Day looks like when we add experts’ ratings to the Classic forecast

x

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